(Enerji IQ – July 2021) The total volume of gas that entered Turkey’s national transmission network in the first half of 2021 reached 31.880 bcm, marking a 31.53% increase YoY from last year, when the total entry volume was 24.238 bcm from January 1-June 30. The average daily gas entry-volume rose 176.13 mcm from 133.00 mcm during the same period according to Enerji IQ’s calculation. The daily peak entry was recorded on January 19 with 279.51 mcm.
BOTAS’ daily gas-entry volumes reflect the amount of gas that entered the transmission system from import points, underground storage facilities, and domestic production wells. Since the volume coming from storage facilities and production is limited, the entry data is a strong indicator of consumption figures.
Consumption figures, derived from BOTAS’ daily gas entry-and-exit volumes, showed a 25% increase YoY, reaching roughly 25 bcm at the end of May. However, the increase rate rose to 31.87% after June, as the Baymina and Adapazari gas-fired power plants, which each have 770 MW of installed capacity, started commercial production in June.
If the increase in demand continues at this same rate during the second half of 2021, total annual consumption is expected to reach roughly 60 bcm, which would smash the previous record for annual gas consumption of 53.86 bcm in 2017. Turkey’s gas consumption in 2020 was 47.70 bcm, with a 6.5% increase YoY from 2019.
Turkey’s gas demand is expected to remain high in the second half of 2021 due to the addition of 4.6 GW of capacity from merchant gas-fired power plants. EMRA amended its capacity-mechanism regulation in May, permitting four gas-fired power plants with a total capacity of 4.6 GW to benefit from its capacity-mechanism rewards. The record-low water inflow to Turkey’s hydroelectric power plants (HEPP) is also increasing Turkey’s gas demand. The total water inflow through major HEPPs from January 1-May 31 was 39% lower YoY and 56% lower compared to the same period in 2019. HEPPs comprise 32% of Turkey’s total installed capacity with 32.3 GW, whereas gas-fired power plants account for 26% with 25.7 GW.