European PPA Market Outlook 2022

Overall yearly PPA activity kept strong – Despite yet another turbulent year, PPA activity in 2021 led to a 58% CAGR growth in deal count and 42% in contracted capacity since 2018. In 2021, we tracked 11.2GW of PPAs that enabled new capacity to come online across more than 140 deals.

Volatility led October to be the slowest PPA month – PPA activity almost came to a standstill  in October, just when the pricing surge that started in September made it clear that it was not a temporary bump in the road and price volatility increased even more dramatically. The most conducive environment to PPA deal making is when price changes are moderate, a situation which did not normalise throughout the rest of the year and continued into the new yea, remarkably given the current environment, most transactions that were halted during the price 
wobbles managed to close before the end of the year, making December 2021 the strongest PPA deal month ever recorded volume-wise.

For the first time, volumes executed in Corporate PPAs significantly outperformed utility PPAs – In total, 2021 saw 6.5GW of  disclosed contracted capacity for corporate PPAs, and 4.63GW for utility PPAs. Amazon  is the biggest PPA offtaker, taking home 16% of the year’s contracted capacity and 30% of European corporate PPAs overall. Corporates take over the Top 3 positions for Top Sellers, with Alcoa and BASF filling up the spots next to the IT conglomerate.

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