Energy Transition Outlook 2022 DNV

Looking beyond today’s high energy prices to see what the longer-term energy future holds is difficult. That is what this Outlook does. Our forecast considers the demand shock of the pandemic and the supply shock that came with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concludes that those developments exert little long-term influence over a transition that will be rapid and extensive.

The present turbulence in energy markets is not inconsequential, however. Europe will transition to a renewablesdominated power system more rapidly, but higher energy prices may dampen investment in clean energy elsewhere. These two effects tend to offset each other globally over time. Supply-chain disruptions will continue in the shorter term, delaying the global EV ‘milestone’ (when the EV share of new vehicle sales surpasses 50%) by one year in our forecast — to 2033. But here too there are compensatory developments, where high prices will encourage energy-saving behaviour among power consumers. For aviation, we also forecast a permanent reduction of 7% in annual passenger trips due to pandemic-related changes in work habits.

This year, our forecast sees non-fossil energy nudge slightly above 50% of the global energy mix by 2050. The principal underlying dynamic is rapid electrification, with supply climbing from 27 PWh/yr now to 62 PWh/yr in 2050. We detail how this leads to enormous energyefficiency gains in power generation and end-use.

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